486
FXUS61 KRLX 251822
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. THE MAIN POINTS
OF EMPHASIS REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, THEN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING RENEWED FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY VIA AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- 2) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION, SOME
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
- 3) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WANE LATE SUNDAY, WITH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING
HUMID.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER A MUCH NEEDED 48
HOURS OR SO OF DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY POSITIONED
WEST OF CHICAGO, IL, WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
TODAY VIA A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND SERVE AS THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. CAMS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING AT ~ 5 PM AND SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER AND THE NORTHERN WV
LOWLANDS TOWARDS SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GUIDANCE DEPICTS
MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF ~ 750-1500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION AMID
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS, SUPPORTING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE DISCRETE SIDE. GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS AOA 11-12 KFT, THE PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
OF THE SUB-SEVERE VARIETY OUTSIDE OF THE MOST ROBUST CORES.
GIVEN SOME CURVATURE ON PROGGED HODOGRAPHS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO
REMAINS POSSIBLE. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL QUICKLY WANE BY
LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH 80S PROGGED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WHILE 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES VIA DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
ACTIVITY, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GUIDANCE HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY BACK
NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ITS WAKE, THE
FRONT SLIPS BACK SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE STEADILY AMPLIFYING/BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS FINALLY LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA
AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER AS LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH PERIODIC
CROSSING MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCING
ACTIVITY AT TIMES. THE FIRST BEING LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, THEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE. GIVEN PROGGED PWAT VALUES OF
1.7-2.0"+ (~90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO) AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AT TIMES, THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE HYDRO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
(ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL), AND BE GREATLY TIED TO
THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL NEED
REFINED AS TIME GOES ON. WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CENTRAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS A WIDESPREAD 1-2"
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, BUT AT PRESENT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY, AND KINEMATIC
FIELDS LOOK GENERALLY MODEST OVER THE WEEKEND, THUS OVERALL
LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH HEAVY
STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND
WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY REMAINS THAT A STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS NEEDING REFINED GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
FRONTAL POSITIONING. SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL REMAINS, BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. AFTER LIKELY
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON LATE FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND EARLY SUNDAY,
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STEADILY DECREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS A STOUT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AMID STEADILY INCREASING HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE
CWA. THIS PATTERN THEN GENERALLY HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR HEAT TO BUILD AMID HUMID CONDITIONS. WHILE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED, MODERATE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL, AT LEAST EARLY
IN THE NEW WORK WEEK GIVEN SMALLER SCALE FORCING VIA THE
TERRAIN EFFECTS TYPICAL OF THE CWA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ANABATIC CONVERGENCE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
TOWARDS MID WEEK MAY PUT A LID ON CONVECTION ENTIRELY.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY
IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH LOWLAND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. HIGHS COULD PUSH INTO THE MID 90S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S OR LOW 100S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CU BETWEEN 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND LIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA/-TSRA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AT KCKB, KHTS, KPKB; AND PROB30 GROUPS
HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED TO THOSE TERMINALS DUE TO THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TSTMS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT ANY TSTM MENTION FOR KBKW, KCRW, AND KEKN WITH THIS TAF
CYCLE. CLUSTERS OF -SHRA ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV,
WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SHOULD -SHRA AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF ANY -SHRA AT KPKB
AND KEKN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY, WITH CIGS LIFTING INTO VFR
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR CIGS EXPAND
INTO OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/-TSRA ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. REDUCTIONS TO CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH -TSRA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW
FOG AND STRATUS EACH MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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