004
FXUS61 KRLX 262340
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH THAT HAS GONE INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON NOW
COVERS ADDITIONAL WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES ALONG THE I-79
CORRIDOR. ALSO ELECTED TO EXTEND THE VALID TIME OF THE WATCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
COULD POSE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A NUISANCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SERVES UP FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF OHIO, KENTUCKY, AND
WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
- 2) BUILDING HEAT IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AND SPILLING INTO THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES APPROACH THE
TRIPLE DIGITS BY MIDWEEK AND ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE OUR WESTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN MASKED BENEATH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND MORNING SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
BAY, LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAVE HAD AMPLE SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE TIME
OF WRITING SHOWS BUBBLING CUMULUS FROM THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS
AND UP INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT, WITH MANY OF OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL SITES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE SPOTS IN SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST WV
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ARRIVES FROM KENTUCKY HERE IN A FEW HOURS, AND WILL
LIKELY JOURNEY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES.
IN ADDITION TO STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS, ABNORMALLY
HIGH PWATS USHERING INTO THE AREA TODAY AMID THE NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE UP PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. THIS SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN LEADS TO A VARIETY OF
FORECAST OUTPUTS IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP,
LEADING TO A MULTITUDE OF SOLUTIONS FROM OUR AFTERNOON CAMS
SUITE. WHILE THERE REMAINS A DECENT SPREAD IN PINPOINTING
PROJECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, TRENDS HOLD FIRM THAT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITHIN THE RISK OF OBSERVING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. WITH THAT IN MIND, OPTED TO EXPAND THE WATCH IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND TIME. THIS WILL NOW ENCOMPASS OUR WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES ALIGNED ALONG THE I-79 CORRIDOR AND WILL NOW BE IN
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE BOARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NEXT WEEK WILL YIELD BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPLING INTO THE 90S
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPIRE AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AROUND THE
TRI-STATE AREA, THEN SPREADING FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES AS THE HEAT BUILDS AND MAY APPROACH THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS AS SOON AS TUESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS
HINT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL PREVAIL FOR QUITE SOME TIME, WITH THE
HEAT WAVE POTENTIALLY SPILLING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WHILE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP AMID THIS STRONG
RIDGE PATTERN, COULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
FORMING SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AMID THE ELEVATED HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SW VA AT 23Z WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, GENERALLY EXITING THE AREA/TO THE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS BY 04Z. EXPECT BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THESE
STORMS, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
AFTER 05Z, ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA, MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA AGAIN, INCLUDING
SITES KCRW AND KBKW, ALTHOUGH STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ANYWHERE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL WAVES/STORMS AREA
WIDE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY AFTER 15Z, WITH A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 20Z. STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND RESULT IN BRIEF IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AFTER 06Z IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS, LINGERING FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN/STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. EXTENT OF MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/27/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H L H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M L M M M
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>032-039-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OHZ067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SL
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