042
FXUS61 KRLX 270701
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING,
THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FRONT SUSTAINS FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUS, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH, NORTHEAST KY, AND THE WV LOWLANDS.
- 2) HEAT BUILDS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA, WITH SHORTWAVES AND A SURFACE LOW HELPING BOLSTER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT TIMES TODAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MAINTAIN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BULK OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY; HOWEVER, THE RISK MAY BE
LESSENED BY CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK.
MUCH OF THE AREA IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN THE LOWLANDS, THERE IS 60-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF AT LEAST 90 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, AND 40-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 95
DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
HEAT INDICES MAY ENCROACH UPON TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER TOWARDS MORNING, WITH MVFR
AND POCKETS OF IFR LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY AMID
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
IMPACT VISIBILITIES, PROMPTING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY, THEN CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN/STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. EXTENT OF MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/27/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M L H H H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L H L L L L H H H M H M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>032-039-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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