275
FXUS61 KRLX 270952
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
552 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING,
THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FRONT SUSTAINS FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUS, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH, NORTHEAST KY, AND THE WV LOWLANDS.
- 2) HEAT BUILDS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA, WITH SHORTWAVES AND A SURFACE LOW HELPING BOLSTER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT TIMES TODAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MAINTAIN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BULK OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY; HOWEVER, THE RISK MAY BE
LESSENED BY CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK.
MUCH OF THE AREA IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. IN THE LOWLANDS, THERE IS 60-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF AT LEAST 90 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, AND 40-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 95
DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
HEAT INDICES MAY ENCROACH UPON TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THICKENING CLOUDS AND ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. FOR TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS, FOG, AND LOW
STRATUS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
SURFACE FLOW THEN BECOMES CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN/STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/27/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY. IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>032-039-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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