407
FXUS61 KRLX 271831
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA HAS LESSENED, PROMPTING CANCELLATION OF
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE WATCH CURRENTLY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA AMID A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
- 2) TURNING HOT FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAT EXPOSURE CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED BY
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN PROMPT HYDRO AND
SEVERE CONCERNS ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY. AT THE TIME OF
WRITING, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY TO NOW
HAS PIERCED THROUGH THE HEART OF KENTUCKY AND AIMING
SOUTHEASTWARD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, WHICH HAS SPARED
OUR FORECAST AREA. A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN PRESSED THROUGH
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLIER THIS MORNING, WITH LOCAL WEATHER
STATIONS HAVING MEASURED JUST OVER AN INCH OF RAIN AS A RESULT.
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR TODAY, OPTED TO CANCEL PARTS
OF THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS VERY LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN
A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN STILL TO COME THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD, SO WILL LEAVE THE
REMAINING WATCH AS IS THROUGH 8 PM. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
CURTAIL THE REMAINING RAINFALL PROJECTED FOR THE AREA, THE WATCH
COULD BE NIXED ALTOGETHER BEFORE THIS EVENING.
17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LESS OF A CAP OVER THE CWA THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR DOES HAVE RENEWED SHOWERS FORMING
NORTH OF I-64 ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY GROW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER INTO A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE RISK HAS
DROPPED OFF AMID BLANKETING CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY. GREATEST RISK
NOW RESIDES FROM TENNESSEE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS PLANTED
OVERHEAD, YIELDING LOW STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HEADING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTWARD ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS A SLUGGISH DEPARTURE NORTHWARD
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING OVER THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FOR THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
IMPOSE MULTIPLE DAYS OF DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS SOAR INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, AND WITH THE HUMIDITY IT WILL
FEEL CLOSER TO 100 DEGREES OR HOTTER OUTSIDE. THIS UPCOMING HEAT
WAVE SPANNING CONSECUTIVE DAYS WILL EXACERBATE HEAT EXPOSURE
RISKS AS A RESULT. CONDUCT SMART SAFETY PROTOCOLS DURING THIS
PERIOD OF MAJOR HEAT RISK IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS AT THE FOREFRONT OF TODAY'S
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AMID A COMBINATION OF BLANKETING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. MAIN CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD, BUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE OVER OUR AIRSPACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD NOTED BY THE 17Z METARS
WERE WIDESPREAD MVFR, WHICH HOLDS STEADY WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FORECAST. FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, COUPLED WITH SURFACE VSBYS
DROPPING WITH ANY FOG FORMATION. IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS REMAIN
ROOTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WINDS GROW CALM OVERNIGHT AMID THE NEARBY
POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BOLSTERING FOG POTENTIAL
FOR OUR NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN/STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-
024>026.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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