200
FXUS61 KRLX 092347
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, HEAVY AT TIMES. 18Z AVIATION
FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING
POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING. FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PERIODIC CROSSING UPPER WAVES PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST PWATS IN
THE 1.5 TO 2.0" RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWER/STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, BUT GIVEN RATES OF
1"+ PER HOUR, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN ANY
TRAINING OF CONVECTION. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN WV DEPENDING ON CLEARING.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND A MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OVERTOP. MOTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN H850
FLOW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY, BUT WITH PERHAPS A BIT
MORE TRAINING POTENTIAL. ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY
COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD, WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY (1-2" IN SOME
AREAS), ANTICIPATED ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, AND AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA.
WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, GIVEN
PROGGED MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1,000 J/KG EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR, ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVY
STORMS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
DRIER SUNDAY NIGHT AND START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK. NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DUE TO CONVECTION PROVIDING RECENT RAINFALL AT ALL SITES TODAY
THE MAIN THEME WILL BE POTENTIAL MVFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS
TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH QUIETER WEATHER MEANING
NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. FOG MAY BECOME MORE ROBUST OVERNIGHT
AND ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TO DETER MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
AFTER ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT, EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY COME TO FRUITION ONCE AGAIN AND CAN CAUSE
SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAYTIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
MAY NOT GET INTO MANY SITES, HOWEVER MORE LOW (BORDERLINE MVFR)
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL BECOME PREVALENT AND MAY AFFECT SITES
WITH IFR AT TIMES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING
AMID THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY POSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH FOG AND/OR
STRATUS MAY BE WORSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page