074
FXUS61 KRLX 110501
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
101 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS INTACT FOR THE BULK
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE HAS LIMITED STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING FROM OCCURRING, KEEPING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS LOW THUS
FAR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO DRIFT DOWN AND STALL OVER THE
AREA WILL SERVE UP UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
2) BECOMING DRIER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, TURNING HOTTER
BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED BENEATH A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
EMBEDDED WITH STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE AND INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM THUS
FAR TODAY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS AT THE TIME OF WRITING HAVE BEGUN
TO BUILD UPWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA EAST OF THE
PERSNICKETY STRATUS DECK. NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, MORNING
AND AFTERNOON CLEAR SKIES HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER AREA SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SINKS SOUTHWARD.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
WITH THE FRONT SLATED TO PARK OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS PROGGED TO FESTER FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA.
18Z MESOANALYSIS PLANTS THE AREA WITHIN 1.8 TO 2 INCH PWATS,
MAINTAINING STRONG SIGNALS FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN ANY SHOWER
AND STORM AIMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO CURRENTLY UNDERGOING CLEARING SKIES. THE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES,
SUGGESTING A BURST OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN PETERING OUT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FIRING UP ALONG THE FRONT POSITIONED
OVERHEAD. HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS DEPICT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY, THEN SPREADING
FURTHER ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD SOME MORE ON SUNDAY,
WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLEARING OUT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
WHILE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE ATTACHED TO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY, THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH
ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE QUICK BURSTS OF RAIN AND/OR
REPETITIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS FALLING OVER ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS. THERE REMAINS A VARIETY OF MODEL OUTPUTS IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS, BUT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO OBSERVE HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AMID THIS MUDDLED WEATHER PATTERN. SOME GUIDANCE
TARGETS A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BE TROUBLESOME DUE TO
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN THIS AREA WITHIN THE PAST
FEW WEEKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE FRONT JOURNEYS FURTHER SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
ON MONDAY, A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD. UPPER
HEIGHT RISES NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDWEEK SUGGESTS
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, WHICH COULD BOLSTER HEAT
INDICES STRETCHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS. THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR RENEWED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE, WITH MVFR OR
WORSE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OCCURRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS,
STRATUS, AND SOME AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY, VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT INTO THE MORNING, THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS TONIGHT
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 07/11/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M H H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H M H M H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M L H H L H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...20
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