936
FXUS61 KRLX 120552
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
ELECTED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF KY, WV, AND VA
INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS DIMINISH AFTER TONIGHT, SO THE WATCH REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE TO EXPIRE SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS SPILL INTO SUNDAY AMID A SLOW
DEPARTURE OF A COLD FRONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXACERBATE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
2) TURNING DRY AND WARMER FOR THE NEW WEEK BEFORE RETURNING TO
AN UNSETTLED STATE AFTER THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS HAVE RAMPED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
UNDER THE GUISE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG A
WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS PLACES THE BULK OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITHIN A HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THESE
SLOWLY PROPAGATING CELLS CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS EQUIVALENT
TO 1-3"/HR WILL PROVOKE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND LEAD TO
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENCE OF
THESE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AS
WELL AS OUR SOUTHERN COALFIELDS TODAY, LEADING TO SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS. CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT WILL FAIL TO MAKE A FULL EXODUS FROM
THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL APPEAR
ONCE MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR SOIL RECOVERY ACROSS THE
COALFIELDS, OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY, SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ALLOWING THE CURRENT WATCH TO EXPIRE
SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
BEGINNING ON MONDAY, DRIER WEATHER TAKES HOLD AMID UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING CENTER STAGE. THIS FEATURE WILL YIELD A WARMING
TREND, RETURNING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. COUPLED WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES NOSE UP
INTO THE UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL LIES IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD, WHERE PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, FOG, AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING THE DAY, MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTH.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES MAY FLUCTUATE IN FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF CIG/VIS IMPROVEMENTS AND EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 07/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L M L L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L M H M M M M L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-
024>026-033-034-515>518.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ007>011-016>020-
027>032-039-040-519>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ087.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-
083>086.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...20
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