423
FXUS61 KRLX 120713
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY AND, TO A
LESSER EXTENT, ON MONDAY. AFTER A WARM AND DRY MIDWEEK, THE
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
2) TURNING DRY AND WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED
AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE, IS PROJECTED TO MEANDER DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND A NEARBY
FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA AND FACILITATE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A LULL OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING; THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD SPROUT UP ON MONDAY, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS DRIER AIR EDGES IN BEHIND
THE RECEDING SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY BREAKING INTO THE LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN WITH
DISTURBANCES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, FOG, AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING THE DAY, MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST AS MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTH.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES MAY FLUCTUATE IN FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF CIG/VIS IMPROVEMENTS AND EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 07/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L L L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L M H M M M L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-
024>026-033-034-515>518.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ007>011-016>020-
027>032-039-040-519>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ087.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-
083>086.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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