133
FXUS61 KRLX 121002
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
602 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY AND, TO A
LESSER EXTENT, ON MONDAY. AFTER A WARM AND DRY MIDWEEK, THE
FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
2) TURNING DRY AND WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED
AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE, IS PROJECTED TO MEANDER DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND A NEARBY
FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA AND FACILITATE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A LULL OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING; THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD SPROUT UP ON MONDAY, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS DRIER AIR EDGES IN BEHIND
THE RECEDING SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY BREAKING INTO THE LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN WITH
DISTURBANCES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR BY AFTERNOON WHILE OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR WORSE AS FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE DAY, THEN
REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG/VIS IMPROVEMENTS AND EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-
024>026-033-034-515>518.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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