581
FXUS61 KRLX 121824
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT ONCE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT. THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY SUPPLY ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
2) TURNING DRY AND WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED
AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS AT CENTER STAGE OF THE FORECAST
TODAY, WITH RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYING A MULTITUDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FEATURE.
LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE THESE
STORMS HAVE APPEARED WILL POSE CONCERNS FOR SLOW PROPAGATION AND
RESULTING FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 3 TO 6 INCHES
PER HOUR WERE NOTED AT THE TIME OF WRITING, QUICKLY CONTRIBUTING
TO RAPID ACCUMULATIONS AT LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS. TWO AREAS OF
NOTE THUS FAR TODAY HAS BEEN ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR OF CABELL,
WAYNE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AND THE OTHER IN THE SUMMERSVILLE
AREA OF NICHOLAS COUNTY, WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ACTIVE
CURRENTLY. COMPROMISED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AMID THIS
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXACERBATE THE CONVERSATION OF
HIGH WATER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IN SIMILAR FASHION TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE FRONT TAKES ANOTHER PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. LINGERING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY STILL DRAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE AREA ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
SLATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILS FOR THE BULK OF THE WORK WEEK. A RISE IN UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS, UNDER THE GUISE OF A BUILDING RIDGE, WILL YIELD A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION WILL REACH THE LOW 90S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES CAUSED BY INCREASED HUMIDITY.
AS HAS BEEN MESSAGED THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, THE BREAK
DOWN OF THE RIDGE HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL INVITE A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGIONS. UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES FOR THIS TIME FRAME, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO HAMMER OUT THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY
CAUGHT THE ATTENTION OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, WHO DENOTED
A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 6 OUTLOOK (FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING).
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FIRED UP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
BUBBLING CUMULUS FIELDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PKB, CKB,
AND EKN. IN SIMILAR FASHION TO PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS, STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN STRONGLY BY DIURNAL HEATING, AND SHOULD
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND ALTOGETHER AFTER SUNSET.
THE FRONT SLUMPS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION STEERING OUTSIDE THE PERIPHERY
OF OUR TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BKW.
OTHERWISE, A COMBINATION OF LOW CEILINGS AND LOCALIZED RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS CLOSE BY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT'S DEPARTURE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME WARRANTED FOR
VSBY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-
013>015-024>026-033-034-515>518.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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