572
FXUS61 KRLX 130017
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
817 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. ALSO, AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR
OF CONVECTION PROVIDED HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NORTH
AS IT CREPT ALL THE WAY UP TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THAT CONVECTION WAS FADING AS THE SUN LOWERED, AS
WAS THE CONVECTION DOWN SOUTH, WHICH CREPT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THAT SAID, WITH
THE LAST OF OUR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN THE WATCH AREA GONE,
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELED EARLY.
224 PM DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT ONCE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT. THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY SUPPLY ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
2) TURNING DRY AND WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED
AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS AT CENTER STAGE OF THE FORECAST
TODAY, WITH RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYING A MULTITUDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FEATURE.
LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE THESE
STORMS HAVE APPEARED WILL POSE CONCERNS FOR SLOW PROPAGATION AND
RESULTING FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 3 TO 6 INCHES
PER HOUR WERE NOTED AT THE TIME OF WRITING, QUICKLY CONTRIBUTING
TO RAPID ACCUMULATIONS AT LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS. TWO AREAS OF
NOTE THUS FAR TODAY HAS BEEN ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR OF CABELL,
WAYNE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AND THE OTHER IN THE SUMMERSVILLE
AREA OF NICHOLAS COUNTY, WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ACTIVE
CURRENTLY. COMPROMISED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AMID THIS
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXACERBATE THE CONVERSATION OF
HIGH WATER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IN SIMILAR FASHION TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE FRONT TAKES ANOTHER PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. LINGERING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY STILL DRAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE AREA ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
SLATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILS FOR THE BULK OF THE WORK WEEK. A RISE IN UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS, UNDER THE GUISE OF A BUILDING RIDGE, WILL YIELD A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION WILL REACH THE LOW 90S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES CAUSED BY INCREASED HUMIDITY.
AS HAS BEEN MESSAGED THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, THE BREAK
DOWN OF THE RIDGE HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL INVITE A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGIONS. UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES FOR THIS TIME FRAME, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO HAMMER OUT THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY
CAUGHT THE ATTENTION OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, WHO DENOTED
A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 6 OUTLOOK (FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING).
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WITH THE LAST OF THE EVENING CONVECTION DYING DOWN WITH THE
SETTING SUN, AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN BE PROLONGED FOR EARLY SUMMER AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THIS MONTH SO FAR. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL 05-14Z, WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS 08-13Z. VLIFR DENSE FOG WAS CODED UP FOR CRW AND EKN,
AND ADDED TO PKB AS WELL ON ACCOUNT OF THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
THERE IN THE PAST HOUR.
THE REST OF MONDAY WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THAN
RECENT DAYS, AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA DRIFTS SOUTHWARD,
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA TO ALSO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD, CLOSER TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES
HTS, CRW AND BKW.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, EXCEPT TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT BKW AND ACTUALLY BECOME GUSTY
TOWARD DAWN MONDAY. THIS GUSTY SOUTHEAST FLOW, 15 TO 20 KTS,
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY THERE, WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT THE REMAINING SITES. FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
DIFFERENCES FROM THE MORE GENERALIZED FORECAST ARISING, AS THE
TABLE BELOW SUGGESTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 07/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L L
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...TRM
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