999
FXUS61 KRLX 130555
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
224 PM DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT ONCE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT. THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY SUPPLY ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
2) TURNING DRY AND WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED
AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS AT CENTER STAGE OF THE FORECAST
TODAY, WITH RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYING A MULTITUDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FEATURE.
LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE THESE
STORMS HAVE APPEARED WILL POSE CONCERNS FOR SLOW PROPAGATION AND
RESULTING FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 3 TO 6 INCHES
PER HOUR WERE NOTED AT THE TIME OF WRITING, QUICKLY CONTRIBUTING
TO RAPID ACCUMULATIONS AT LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS. TWO AREAS OF
NOTE THUS FAR TODAY HAS BEEN ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR OF CABELL,
WAYNE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AND THE OTHER IN THE SUMMERSVILLE
AREA OF NICHOLAS COUNTY, WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ACTIVE
CURRENTLY. COMPROMISED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AMID THIS
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXACERBATE THE CONVERSATION OF
HIGH WATER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IN SIMILAR FASHION TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE FRONT TAKES ANOTHER PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. LINGERING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY STILL DRAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE AREA ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
SLATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILS FOR THE BULK OF THE WORK WEEK. A RISE IN UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS, UNDER THE GUISE OF A BUILDING RIDGE, WILL YIELD A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION WILL REACH THE LOW 90S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES CAUSED BY INCREASED HUMIDITY.
AS HAS BEEN MESSAGED THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, THE BREAK
DOWN OF THE RIDGE HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL INVITE A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGIONS. UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES FOR THIS TIME FRAME, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO HAMMER OUT THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY
CAUGHT THE ATTENTION OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, WHO DENOTED
A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 6 OUTLOOK (FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING).
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE AT
ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBKW, WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS. BLO MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO THE EXTENT OF FOG THIS EARLY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR RETURNING AS EARLY AS
14Z. A CU FIELD WILL BUBBLE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT REMAIN
VFR, WITH ISOLATED -SHRA AND/OR -TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN SPATIOTEMPORAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH THIS CYCLE, AND THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA/-TSRA APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST OTHERWISE AND REMAIN CALM
THROUGHOUT THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH KBKW MAY OBSERVE
SOME GUSTS NEAR 10-15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
DIFFERENCES FROM THE MORE GENERALIZED FORECAST ARISING, AS THE
TABLE BELOW SUGGESTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 07/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H M M L M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M M L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L M L L L M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SO BE SURE TO
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE EACH AFTERNOON.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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