922
FXUS61 KRLX 130952
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
552 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
FOLLOWING VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING, PROSPECTS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS ARE VERY LOW TODAY. DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS INTACT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
2) DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MORE STORM CHANCES ARRIVING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED
AT 600 DAM PER THE 13/00Z UA CHARTS, WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
DILAPIDATED ON WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A WELL-DEFINED SHEAR AXIS STEMMING FROM A NORTHERN-STREAM
JETLET TRANSLATES TOWARDS THE REGION. THE RESPECTIVE HIGH-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND RELATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE DESCENDING INTO THE
MID-LEVELS, THE LATTER OF WHICH WAS SAMPLED WELL BY THE 13/00Z RAOB
FROM WFO PBZ, WILL SHUNT THE HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE 250 MB AXIS OF CONVERGENCE. THE NET INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING SOUTHWARD WILL ACT TO KEEP MORE-VIGOROUS STORMS
FROM DEVELOPING COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS, WITH MAINLY BRIEF DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. THE FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE VERY LOW TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN
THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. STORM CHANCES WILL WANE ALTOGETHER BY
DUSK, WITH VALLEY FOG RETURNING LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE WEATHER
REMAINS BENIGN AREA-WIDE OTHERWISE AS THE NVA ALOFT CONTINUES TO
ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY WHILE ALSO EXPANDING WITH
LONGITUDE. DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE
90S WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE TO 594-596
DAM IN CONCERT WITH THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AS ITS APEX BECOMES MODULATED BY A SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FULL INSOLATION WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER EACH DAY, BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO BOOST HEAT INDICES TOWARDS 100
DEGREES FOR A FEW LOCALES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
COLLAPSE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING BECOMES VERTICALLY-STACKED OVER THE GULF OF
ST. LAWRENCE. DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE ON
THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE RESPECTIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOTING
THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE WAVEGUIDE, BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST FLOW
IN CONJUNCTION WITH AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS (SOME SEVERE) BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH VALLEY FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KBKW, WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED -SHRA/-
TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPATIOTEMPORAL
COVERAGE STILL REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. VFR
AND LIGHT, EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD OTHERWISE,
WITH KBKW GUSTING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY AS VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LIFR POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
DIFFERENCES FROM THE MORE GENERALIZED FORECAST ARISING, AS THE
TABLE BELOW SUGGESTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SO BE SURE TO
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE EACH AFTERNOON.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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