583
FXUS61 KRLX 140559
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR. DID TWEAK DOWN
AFTERNOON MIXED DEW POINTS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL
LIKELY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FADE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.
2.) HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A STRETCH OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER
90S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
3.) A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SUBTLE H850 MASS CONVERGENCE IS SUSTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED AND PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT, CLEARING SKIES AND CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAINFALL TODAY, COMBINED WITH
THE COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY OF THE AREA, COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL LEAD
TO THE FORMATION OF STRONG VALLEY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS AS EARLY AS
06Z TONIGHT. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURE CLIMBS
INITIALLY ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BROAD H500 RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE COUNTRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH THIS RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. GUIDANCE INDICATES AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COMFORTABLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY.
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS EXHIBITS A PERSISTENT HIGH BIAS
REGARDING SUMMERTIME MIXED SURFACE DEW POINTS. WILL MODIFY THESE
TO REFLECT SOMETHING CLOSER TO CONSENSUS. DESPITE THIS DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LIMITED LOWLAND HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
THAT HEAT INDICES WILL TOUCH THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR
CONSECUTIVE HOURS, BUT FOR NOW, CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD,
PLACING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
UNCAPPED AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS MAY MATERIALIZE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY,
YIELDING ISOLATED CONVECTION, BUT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT
ARRIVES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION.
DEEP LAYER STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30KTS FROM THE
WEST, PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS, SETTING UP A HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESS. WHILE THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS STORMS WILL
BE PROGRESSIVE, FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD ORIENT CONVECTION
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO EAST
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INCREASES, YET
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCING TREE
DAMAGE. IN OUR HEAVILY FORESTED REGION, THE DENSE CANOPY IS
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, AND SURFACE
GUSTS AS LOW AS 45 MPH CAN EASILY RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
SUBSEQUENT END OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW, BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION KBKW AND KHTS, BY SUNRISE DUE TO VALLEY FOG. BLO MINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCRW, KEKN, AND KPKB. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BETWEEN 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS AS VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES. KBKW
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AMIDST A GENTLE BREEZE FROM
THE EAST, WITH KHTS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR VSBYS LEADING UP TO
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
VALLEY FOG RETURNING TO SOME OF THE TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW-TO-MEDIUM FOR EARLY MORNING FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOG AT CKB MAY FORM EARLIER AND BE WORSE THAN
FORCAST ON ACCOUNT OF A SHOWER THERE IN THE PAST HOUR.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 07/14/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR/LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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