218
FXUS61 KRLX 140727
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
327 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST CONTINUITY REMAINS INTACT, WITH HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCALES IN THE
LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INCREASE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG-TO-SEVERE WHILE ALSO POSING A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., WITH ITS CENTER OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED AT AN
IMPRESSIVE 601 DAM OVER MPX PER THE 14/00Z UA CHARTS. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION AS THE APEX OF
SUPERGEOSTROPHIC FLOW REMAINS DISPLACED OVER CENTRAL CANADA, WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CORRIDOR OF HIGH-LEVEL, CONVERGENT FLOW TRANSLATING
SOUTHWARD ON WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN AS ITS HIGHER AMPLITUDE BECOMES ATTENUATED BY A
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN QUEBEC. AT THE
SURFACE, THE CWA WAS BEREFT OF ANY FRONTS AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES,
AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLOSHES EAST OVER THE REGION AND AS THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PARKS IN CENTRAL APPALACHIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WHILE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S. DEWPOINTS
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S, AND A PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING TECHNIQUE WAS APPLIED TO THE SUBSEQUENT DAYS. THEREFORE,
DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NBM WITH CONSALL
THROUGH THURSDAY, PRIMARILY TO REFLECT THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER
BENEATH THE DESCENDING WARM NOSE ALOFT. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCALES IN
PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER, WITH LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE REACHING
ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT AS OF THIS PROGNOSTICATION. IRRESPECTIVE OF
WHETHER OR NOT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS MET, HOT AND VERY MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWING THE COLLAPSE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA, A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE FLOW WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER TO TRANSITION
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BY THE TAIL-END OF THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL NWP
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE
VERTICALLY-STACKED SYSTEM WOBBLES OVER THE LABRADOR SEA. THERE
REMAINS DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO THE AMPLITUDE, TIMING, AND
POSITION(S) OF THESE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS; HOWEVER, THERE IS AN
INCREASING CONSENSUS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG-TO-SEVERE. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THE
BAROCLINIC LOW AND THE PHASED STATE OF THE JET STREAM, THE LOW-LEVEL
MASS RESPONSE WILL GOVERN SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ADVECTING INTO THE CWA AMIDST
TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. THE ENVIRONMENTAL BACKGROUND FLOW IN
RELATION TO THE STALLING COLD FRONT WOULD ALSO RESULT IN A CLASSIC
SCENARIO FOR TRAINING STORMS, THEREBY POSING A RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING. MESOSCALE DETAILS REMAIN NEBULOUS AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
INCLUDING OVERNIGHT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION KBKW AND KHTS, BY SUNRISE DUE TO VALLEY FOG. BLO MINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCRW, KEKN, AND KPKB. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BETWEEN 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS AS VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES. KBKW
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AMIDST A GENTLE BREEZE FROM
THE EAST, WITH KHTS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR VSBYS LEADING UP TO
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
VALLEY FOG RETURNING TO SOME OF THE TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, LOW-TO-MEDIUM FOR EARLY MORNING FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOG AT CKB MAY FORM EARLIER AND BE WORSE THAN
FORCAST ON ACCOUNT OF A SHOWER THERE IN THE PAST HOUR.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 07/14/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR/LIFR VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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