655
FXUS61 KRLX 141741
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED HAZE TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO
SUSPENDED DISTANCE WILDFIRE SMOKE. HELD OFF ON HEAT ADVISORIES
FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH MARGINAL CRITERIA AND POTENTIAL
SUPPRESSION OF DAYTIME HIGHS WITH SUSPENDED SMOKE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT CONDITIONS AND HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
2. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BROAD H500 RIDGING/CLOSED UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE LOWER
ELEVATION TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
90S, A SUSPENDED SMOKE PLUME FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED
TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. THIS SMOKE LAYER WILL FILTER SOLAR INSOLATION,
LIKELY SHAVING A DEGREE OR TWO OFF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO RAW GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GIVEN THE THE
SUSPENDED SMOKE, HAZE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE DEW POINTS EXHIBIT A KNOWN HIGH BIAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADJUSTING THESE DEW POINTS DOWNWARD COUPLED
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE SUSPENDED SMOKE
SHOULD KEEP PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S, REMAINING BELOW
THE 100 HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL SEE HOW TEMPERATURES RESPOND TO THE SUSPENDED SMOKE ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MAKING DECISIONS FOR A HEAT ADVISORY THURSDAY
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD BY LATE WEEK,
PLACING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
UNCAPPED SOUNDINGS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, FEATURING EXTREMELY
DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS THAT WILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES. STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AT 15 TO 30KTS, WHICH WOULD NORMALLY KEEP CONVECTION
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD ORIENT THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING FLOW, SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO EAST
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN CORES OVER THE SAME AREAS. RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING TWO INCHES PER HOUR FROM TRAINING CELLS WOULD
POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.
IN ADDITION TO THE HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS, THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH WATER LOADED SOUNDINGS WILL
SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS, TREE DAMAGE CAN
START TO OCCUR WITH GUSTS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER SEVERE CRITERIA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE
OF MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG 06-12Z. SUSPENDED SMOKE FROM
DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL YIELD HAZY SKIES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL EFFECT ON
SURFACE VISIBILITY, SLANT RANGE VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT MEDIUM FOR FOG TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST
LATER TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
MORNING VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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