604
FXUS61 KRLX 150515
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ADDED HAZE TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO
SUSPENDED DISTANT WILDFIRE SMOKE. HELD OFF ON HEAT ADVISORIES
FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH MARGINAL CRITERIA AND POTENTIAL
SUPPRESSION OF DAYTIME HIGHS WITH SUSPENDED SMOKE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT CONDITIONS AND HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
2. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BROAD H500 RIDGING/CLOSED UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE LOWER
ELEVATION TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
90S, A SUSPENDED SMOKE PLUME FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED
TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. THIS SMOKE LAYER WILL FILTER SOLAR INSOLATION,
LIKELY SHAVING A DEGREE OR TWO OFF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO RAW GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GIVEN THE THE
SUSPENDED SMOKE, HAZE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE DEW POINTS EXHIBIT A KNOWN HIGH BIAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADJUSTING THESE DEW POINTS DOWNWARD COUPLED
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE SUSPENDED SMOKE
SHOULD KEEP PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S, REMAINING BELOW
THE 100 HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL SEE HOW TEMPERATURES RESPOND TO THE SUSPENDED SMOKE ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MAKING DECISIONS FOR A HEAT ADVISORY THURSDAY
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD BY LATE WEEK,
PLACING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
UNCAPPED SOUNDINGS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, FEATURING EXTREMELY
DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS THAT WILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES. STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AT 15 TO 30KTS, WHICH WOULD NORMALLY KEEP CONVECTION
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD ORIENT THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING FLOW, SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST TO EAST
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN CORES OVER THE SAME AREAS. RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING TWO INCHES PER HOUR FROM TRAINING CELLS WOULD
POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.
IN ADDITION TO THE HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS, THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH WATER LOADED SOUNDINGS WILL
SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS, TREE DAMAGE CAN
START TO OCCUR WITH GUSTS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER SEVERE CRITERIA.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS UNDERWAY, WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS, IN ADDITION TO
BRIEF VLIFR THROUGH SUNRISE. VSBYS AT KBKW SHOULD BE MORE BEHAVED,
WITH MVFR INCLUDED IN THE TAF WITH THIS CYCLE. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED AND ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. RAPID IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR WILL
OCCUR ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE HAZE MENTION
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST(S) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR ALL TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN CALM-TO-LIGHT, AND PREVAIL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. KEKN MAY RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER BEFORE THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD AS VALLEY FOG FORMS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHECK
DENSITY ALTITUDE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM FOR FOG THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT
HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST
THIS EARLY MORNING, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF FOG AT
BKW AGAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/15/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L M L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY,
WITH CHANCES LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IFR OR LOWER MAY ACCOMPANY
STORMS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO
ACCOMPANY STORMS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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