045
FXUS61 KRLX 160528 CCA
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
THERE IS A GOES-19/EAST DATA OUTAGE AFFECTING ALL PRODUCTS UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
ADDITIONALLY, AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
STATE OF OHIO FROM 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT.
158 PM UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY, RAISING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LOWLANDS WITH SOMEWHAT THINNER
SUSPENDED SMOKE EXPECTED. NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE ADDED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL
HEAT INDICES THURSDAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HAZE/SMOKE FROM
DISTANT WILDFIRES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
2.) LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, MAXIMIZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN EXPANSIVE H500 RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND SOLAR RADIATION WOULD TYPICALLY MAXIMIZE SURFACE HEATING,
AN ELEVATED PLUME OF WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL
SOMEWHAT FILTER INCOMING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, INCLUDING THE METRO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO, WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER SURFACE DEW POINTS, HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE RETREATS SOUTHEASTWARD
AND SUBSIDES, ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH. LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SHIFT TO FAVOR ENHANCED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, BRINGING
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. AMBIENT HIGH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE LOWLANDS, COMBINED WITH
THIS HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, WILL DRIVE PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO PERHAPS LOW TRIPLE DIGITS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO THIN TEMPORARILY DURING PEAK HEATING THURSDAY, ALLOWING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION BEFORE A THICKER PLUME DROPS SOUTH LATE IN
THE DAY.
BY FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD AS THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN
SHIFTS A MUCH DENSER SMOKE PLUME SOUTHWARD, INTRODUCING NEAR-
SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS TO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS THICK HAZE AND SMOKE LOADING WILL ENHANCE
SCATTERING OF SOLAR RADIATION AND SUBSTANTIALLY SUPPRESS DAYTIME
HEATING, KEEPING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LARGELY
KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN TRANSITION OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD, PUTTING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A
WEAK, MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BEFORE SUNSET, MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN TOO LIMITED
TO ALTER THE DRY DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING AND
MAXIMIZE ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND FORCES A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT
WILL DRAW AN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RESERVOIR INTO THE REGION,
PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES, WHICH
REPRESENTS 90TH+ PERCENTILE OF LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY. THIS
EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST COLUMN FEATURES VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS,
SUPPORTING HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING EXTREME RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WHILE STEERING FLOW ALOFT OF 15 TO 30KT FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROGRESSIVE, THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, ESTABLISHING A
SETUP FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. SEVERAL
INTERVENING DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL SOMEWHAT MITIGATE
THE THREAT.
IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION
AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HIGH MOISTURE LOADING WILL FAVOR WET MICROBURST DEVELOPMENT,
BRINGING A RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. STORM THREATS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS IF
THE FRONT IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF BOTH SEVERE AND
FLASH FLOOD THREATS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TEMPORAL
DISTANCE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KBKW THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR 13Z, BUT MAY BE AS LATE AS 14Z AT EKN
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS MORNING. HAZE IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY, BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, WITH SMOKE POSSIBLE INVOF
KCKB, KEKN, AND KPKB. VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM SMOKE ARE LESS CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME AT THOSE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, HIGH-ALTITUDE CIGS FROM
THE SMOKE LAYER WILL REMAIN SCT-BKN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CALM WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
*GOES-19/EAST DATA OUTAGE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
*05Z METAR DATA HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY AN OUTAGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW FOR THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF VALLEY
FOG THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN HIGH THEREAFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS TODAY. VSBYS FROM SMOKE MAY FALL BELOW VFR AT
KCKB, KEKN, AND KPKB THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 07/16/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KCKB,
KEKN, AND KPKB THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND AFFECT SOME OF THE TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN ARRIVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IFR OR LOWER WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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