446
FXUS61 KRLX 162138
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
538 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AMID SMOKE FROM
DISTANT WILDFIRES. SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD TAKE ADDITIONAL
PRECAUTIONS. THESE GROUPS INCLUDE CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, AND
PEOPLE SUFFERING FROM ASTHMA, HEART DISEASE, OR OTHER LUNG
DISEASES.
328 PM UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A SPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS FOR HEAT INDICES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HAZY TODAY/FRIDAY, WITH SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING; AND A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND HEAVY STORMS WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY
INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. SMOKE FROM
DISTANT WILDFIRES TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (CENTRAL/NORTH), RESULTING IN A
BIT OF HAZE. GIVEN SUCH, DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM
CENTRAL GUIDANCE, BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, WITH HEAT
INDICES PEAKING IN THE 95 TO 100 RANGE. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE
ISSUED A SPS INTO THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT, BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES (SE OH AND
N WV). RIVER VALLEY FOG THEN DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT, AND COULD BE
DENSE IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTH. IN ADDITION, INCREASED
SMOKE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. HEAT INDICES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S, WHILE SLIGHTLY LOWER FURTHER
NORTH GIVEN ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR THERE. LINGERING SMOKE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTH, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
EXISTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (20-40%) IN THE SOUTH, WEST,
AND MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF OHIO
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (> 70%).
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN MODERATE BUOYANCY AMID MORE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC FIELDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE HAZARD WITH ANY
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION,
WITH PWATS PROGGED AT 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES, AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE FRONT, HEAVY RAIN RATES AND
TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
WITH A DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AMID A FEW/SCT (025-045) DIURNAL
CU FIELD. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AMID
DEVELOPING RIVER VALLEY FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMOKE
(FAR NORTH - MAINLY CKB/PKB) FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS OR WORSE ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT COULD VARY DEPENDING ON FOG
EXTENT. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE FROM ~ 12-1330Z ON FRIDAY, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER AMID A BIT OF LINGERING HAZE/SMOKE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, WITH A FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPING
BEGINNING LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM
SMOKE ON FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
CKB/PKB FOR THE TIME BEING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY, MEDIUM TONIGHT WITH RIVER
VALLEY FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AT
CKB/PKB. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH FOG (AND SMOKE NORTH) COULD VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
SATURDAY MORNING (EAST/SOUTH). IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-525-526.
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-
067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/GW
AVIATION...GW
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