129
FXUS61 KRLX 301520
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1120 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN IN KEY MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
2) AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF RIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, REACHING THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH
IT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING 70 DEGREE DEW POINT AIR INTO THE
REGION, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.80 TO 2.20
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, IF THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS PROJECT
MLCAPE VALUES OF 800-1,000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MENTIONS
THIS POTENTIAL IN THEIR DAY 4 DISCUSSION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR THEM TO OUTLINE A SPECIFIC THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A LOT OF FORECAST MODEL INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM MONDAY ONWARD. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE MIDDLE-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AREA EACH DAY. THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS IS PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS,
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT EKN, CRW AND CKB THROUGH DAWN,
WITH LESS IMPACTS OR NONE AT ALL AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. AFTER
THE FOG BURNS OFF, A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A REPEAT OF VALLEY
FOG FORMATION SHOULD THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND IMPACTFUL AT TAF SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...ABE
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