472
FXUS61 KRLX 302351
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
751 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN IN KEY MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
2) AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF RIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, REACHING THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH
IT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING 70 DEGREE DEW POINT AIR INTO THE
REGION, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.80 TO 2.20
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, IF THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS PROJECT
MLCAPE VALUES OF 800-1,000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MENTIONS
THIS POTENTIAL IN THEIR DAY 4 DISCUSSION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR THEM TO OUTLINE A SPECIFIC THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A LOT OF FORECAST MODEL INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM MONDAY ONWARD. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE MIDDLE-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AREA EACH DAY. THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BELOW 5KTS TURNING CALM OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL PROMOTE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, LEADING TO DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA-
WIDE AFTER 13Z FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKY COVER WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET AGL AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS BELOW 6 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT MEDIUM FOR FOG FORMATION
TIMING/EXTENT OVERNIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSE VALLEY FOG MAY FORM EARLIER THAN 07Z
OR PERSIST PAST 12Z IN SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JP
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