678
FXUS61 KRLX 310501
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
101 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN IN KEY MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
2) AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF RIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, REACHING THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH
IT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING 70 DEGREE DEW POINT AIR INTO THE
REGION, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.80 TO 2.20
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, IF THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS PROJECT
MLCAPE VALUES OF 800-1,000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MENTIONS
THIS POTENTIAL IN THEIR DAY 4 DISCUSSION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR THEM TO OUTLINE A SPECIFIC THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A LOT OF FORECAST MODEL INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM MONDAY ONWARD. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE MIDDLE-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AREA EACH DAY. THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOG WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE, ALLOWING VFR TO TAKE HOLD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE, WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 13Z, THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND DURATION OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 07/31/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L M M M M M M L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20
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