181
FXUS61 KRLX 310734
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS ON
SUNDAY, THEN CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY PERSIST INTO
THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ENTERING THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY, THEN SPREAD EAST AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO NEARLY 2.25 INCHES
SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO PROJECT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP AMID MODERATE INSTABILITY, PLENTY OF
MOISTURE, AND 30 TO 40 KTS OF SHEAR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF AFTER SUNDOWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS FERRY THE WEEKEND SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE PULLING ANOTHER LOW UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF STATES. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCENARIO INVOLVES A CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AND THEN LINGERING THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE DETAILS ARE YET UNCERTAIN, EITHER
SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT CHANCES OF AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOG WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE, ALLOWING VFR TO TAKE HOLD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE, WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 13Z, THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND DURATION OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 07/31/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L M M M M M M L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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