913
FXUS61 KRLX 311633
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1233 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN CHANCES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND COMFORTABLE
TODAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST SATURDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL OF 500-1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IF ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, AND THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.80 TO 2.20 INCHES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, SO THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS
PROJECT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ESCAPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING A STREAM OF MID- LEVEL VORTICITY
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. HOWEVER, IFR FOG CAN STILL DEVELOP AT EKN
BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. VFR WEATHER WILL THEN RESUME AT ALL
TERMINALS SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
5-10 KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 15-20 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST, WHICH CAN
REDUCE VISIBILITY TEMPORARILY AT ANY TERMINAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MORE LOCATIONS THAN KEKN
IF CLOUDS ARE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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