098
FXUS61 KRLX 312336
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
736 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN CHANCES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND COMFORTABLE
TODAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST SATURDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL OF 500-1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IF ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, AND THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.80 TO 2.20 INCHES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, SO THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS
PROJECT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ESCAPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING A STREAM OF MID- LEVEL VORTICITY
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 5 TO 10KTS ALOFT
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS VALLEY FOG, THOUGH IFR OR LIFR FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE AT EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 12KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 TO 20KTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY DIRECT TERMINAL HITS. CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME,
PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COULD DEVELOP AT CRW OR MORE FOG THAN
ADVERTISED COULD DEVELOP AT EKN IF HIGH CLOUDINESS IS THINNER
THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JP
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