263
FXUS61 KRLX 010505
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
105 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN CHANCES AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND COMFORTABLE
TODAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST SATURDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL OF 500-1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IF ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, AND THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.80 TO 2.20 INCHES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, SO THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS
PROJECT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ESCAPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING A STREAM OF MID- LEVEL VORTICITY
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUD COVER INCREASE AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD HINDER FOG FORMATION AT MOST TERMINALS, THOUGH
SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT EKN. WHILE THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROMPT MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
CEILINGS LOWER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 00Z.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE MORNING, THEN
STRENGTHEN TO 5-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE
TAF. ONSET TIME AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 08/01/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20
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