024
FXUS61 KRLX 010640
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. REMAINING UNSETTLED INTO THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
IOWA/MISSOURI/ILLINOIS TRI-STATE AREA WILL AMBLE INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY, THEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE SYSTEM STEERS A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FUNNELS MOISTURE-
RICH AIR UP FROM THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
FACILITATE PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR WITH TRAINING
STORMS ON SUNDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO BE CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OF A GAP IN ACTIVITY OR
CLOUD COVER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, THOUGH
A TORNADO ISN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH IS THEN PROJECTED TO RECEDE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US FROM THE ATLANTIC MID
TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD HINDER FOG FORMATION AT MOST
TERMINALS, THOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT EKN.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROMPT MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CEILINGS LOWER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
INCREASES AFTER 00Z.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO THE MORNING, THEN
STRENGTHEN TO 5-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE
TAF. ONSET TIME AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 08/01/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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