272
FXUS61 KRLX 010825
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. REMAINING UNSETTLED INTO THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
IOWA/MISSOURI/ILLINOIS TRI-STATE AREA WILL AMBLE INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY, THEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE SYSTEM STEERS A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FUNNELS MOISTURE-
RICH AIR UP FROM THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
FACILITATE PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR WITH TRAINING
STORMS ON SUNDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO BE CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OF A GAP IN ACTIVITY OR
CLOUD COVER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, THOUGH
A TORNADO ISN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH IS THEN PROJECTED TO RECEDE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US FROM THE ATLANTIC MID
TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH PERIODIC
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VIS SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP AS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY, THEN
MODERATE FLOW AND 15-25 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. A PERIOD OF LLWS COULD
BE POSSIBLE IF GUSTS EASE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 08/01/26
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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