084
FXUS61 KRLX 020749
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE FOR MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA
WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. REMAINING UNSETTLED MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROPELS A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY, THEN THE CLOSED LOW FADES INTO A TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS
PROJECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THIS TOO
WEAKENS AS IT TRAVELS NORTH AND IS ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MID WEEK. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SKIMS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
US. SHORTWAVES TRAVELING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
FOR TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY THEN DEVELOPS AS
INSTABILITY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH DECENT
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES, SHOULD FACILITATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW-END RISK FOR TORNADOS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALSO MAKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RATHER
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS THAT COULD PROMPT FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WILL BE POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY TRAINING STORMS. GIVEN THIS RISK, A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA FROM 10 AM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE IS PROJECTED TO
FACILITATE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR THIS
MORNING, THEN A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR SHOULD BE PRESENT DURING THE
DAY.
LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE WINDS CALM THIS MORNING, THEN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY. FLOW THEN BECOMES CALM AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COMPLETELY DECOUPLES. CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE THAN
FORECAST WHERE SHRA/TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACT TERMINALS TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 08/02/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H M H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H L M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H L H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR WVZ008>011-013>020-025>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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