116
FXUS61 KRLX 020943
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
543 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE FOR MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA
WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. REMAINING UNSETTLED MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROPELS A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY, THEN THE CLOSED LOW FADES INTO A TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS
PROJECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THIS TOO
WEAKENS AS IT TRAVELS NORTH AND IS ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MID WEEK. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SKIMS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
US. SHORTWAVES TRAVELING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
FOR TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY THEN DEVELOPS AS
INSTABILITY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH DECENT
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES, SHOULD FACILITATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW-END RISK FOR TORNADOS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALSO MAKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RATHER
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS THAT COULD PROMPT FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WILL BE POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY TRAINING STORMS. GIVEN THIS RISK, A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA FROM 10 AM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE IS PROJECTED TO
FACILITATE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROMPT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP
AMID STRATUS, FOG, AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY. LOCALLY STRONG AND
ERRATIC GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FLOW THEN BECOMES CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. TIMING
OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT
MAY VARY FROM THE TAFS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H L H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M H M M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR WVZ008>011-013>020-025>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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