688
FXUS61 KRLX 021626
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATEST THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING
THREATS. UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THEN, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A POSTIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BREAKING FOR BRIEF POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY, AND THIS DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROVIDE FUEL FOR ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE
THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY. IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO MATURE,
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE JUST ENOUGH (30-40 KTS) TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS AROUND 100
M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA TODAY, WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE MAIN THREAT OF
ANY STORMS THAT MATURE TODAY WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
IN ADDITION TO A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL,
NORTHERN, AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AT 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES. THESE
ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY, AND A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
ANY PLACE THAT SEES TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ESCAPE TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND LINGERING VORTICITY ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MOST SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INTERMITTENT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR OR IFR IN DOWNPOURS AND MVFR LOW CEILINGS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN CALM AND RAIN WILL DISSIPATE.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHERE IT
RECENTLY RAINED TODAY. LIFR/VLIFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW SITES. BY 14Z MONDAY, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE DISSIPATED, BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WILL VARY IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. IN ADDITION, RESTRICTIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H L H M L M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M H M M M H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ008>011-013>020-
025>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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