574
FXUS61 KRLX 030413
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1213 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OR NEW FLOODING ISSUES NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. LOCALIZED HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM PRIOR HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING,
WITH FLASH OR AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY REMAINING IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF BUCHANAN, FAYETTE, MINGO, MCDOWELL,
RALEIGH, AND WYOMING COUNTIES.
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AS OF 1226 PM SUNDAY...
LATEST THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING
THREATS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THEN, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A POSTIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BREAKING FOR BRIEF POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY, AND THIS DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROVIDE FUEL FOR ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE
THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY. IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO MATURE,
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE JUST ENOUGH (30-40 KTS) TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS AROUND 100
M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA TODAY, WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE MAIN THREAT OF
ANY STORMS THAT MATURE TODAY WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
IN ADDITION TO A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL,
NORTHERN, AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AT 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES. THESE
ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY, AND A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
ANY PLACE THAT SEES TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ESCAPE TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND LINGERING VORTICITY ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE/MOVING
LARGELY EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
EITHER DISSIPATE OR EXIT THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 04Z.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 06Z, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR OR WORSE LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 14Z, AND LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY, PARTICULARLY AFTER 18Z. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED EAST/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, WITH CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN FOG AND LOW CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 08/03/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H L L L M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M L H M L M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H M H H M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/26
AVIATION...SL
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