609
FXUS61 KRLX 030611
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AS OF 1213 AM MONDAY...
HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT,
WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OR NEW FLOODING ISSUES NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. LOCALIZED HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM PRIOR HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING,
WITH FLASH OR AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY REMAINING IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF BUCHANAN, FAYETTE, MINGO, MCDOWELL,
RALEIGH, AND WYOMING COUNTIES.
AS OF 1226 PM SUNDAY...
LATEST THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING
THREATS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THEN, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A POSTIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BREAKING FOR BRIEF POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY, AND THIS DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROVIDE FUEL FOR ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE
THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY LIMITED THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY. IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO MATURE,
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE JUST ENOUGH (30-40 KTS) TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS AROUND 100
M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA TODAY, WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE MAIN THREAT OF
ANY STORMS THAT MATURE TODAY WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
IN ADDITION TO A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL,
NORTHERN, AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AT 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES. THESE
ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY, AND A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
ANY PLACE THAT SEES TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ESCAPE TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND LINGERING VORTICITY ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISOLD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT
BKW/EKN NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, VEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN THICKENING AND
LOWERING STRATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR OR
WORSE FOR MOST TERMINALS BY DAWN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE,
BUT OVERALL, STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE.
CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
MOST TERMINALS, WITH VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD
OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING IN/NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT IS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT.
LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
IN LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST, ALONG WITH
THE TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, A BRIEF MVFR SHOWER COULD OCCUR AT BKW/EKN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 08/03/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L H M H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M L H M H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M M H H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VALLEY FOG TUESDAY MORNING,
THEN WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ONWARD,
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/26
AVIATION...GW
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