697
FXUS61 KRLX 030744
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
344 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVE DECREASED, WITH JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
2) A MORE ACTIVE AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AREA-WIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH, AT LEAST FOR SUMMERTIME
STANDARDS, IS IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESENT. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
VEERING POST-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN THICKENING /
LOWERING STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT,
GENERALLY LIMITING FOG FORMATION. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
YESTERDAY AND HAD SOME CLEARING EARLY, ALONG WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN LOW STRATUS.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS OR SO HAS
BEEN A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK (MONDAY/TUESDAY). FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
TODAY, WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS (~20-30%) AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL BREAK LATER
TODAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA, GIVING WAY TO A QUIET NIGHT AMID
A DECENT AMOUNT OF VALLEY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
WITH RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AS A
CUTOFF UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ~ 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY BE
PULLED NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS GRADUALLY PROGESSES
EASTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED WARMTH/MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA GIVEN CONTINUED RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
WITH DIURNAL HEATING (POPS GENERALLY 40-70%). THE PATTERN THEN
REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FAIRLY
ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK CROSSING WAVES
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AMID
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME LOOKS LOW,
BUT ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD OCCUR, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISOLD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT
BKW/EKN NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, VEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN THICKENING AND
LOWERING STRATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR OR
WORSE FOR MOST TERMINALS BY DAWN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE,
BUT OVERALL, STRATUS SHOULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE.
CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
MOST TERMINALS, WITH VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD
OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING IN/NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT IS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT.
LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
IN LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST, ALONG WITH
THE TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, A BRIEF MVFR SHOWER COULD OCCUR AT BKW/EKN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 08/03/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L H M H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M L H M H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M M H H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VALLEY FOG TUESDAY MORNING,
THEN WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ONWARD,
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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