656
FXUS61 KRLX 031839
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
KEY MESSAGES REMAIN ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK ONWARD WITH DAILY SHOWERS
AND STORMS AMID HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED ALONG
A COLD FRONT THAT COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN OUT OF OUR TERRITORY, BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL PROMPT ONE FINAL DOUSING OF RAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND LOWER APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL NUDGE
LINGERING OVERCAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, RETURNING SUNSHINE TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WEBCAMS ON REGIONAL ROAD NETWORKS SHOW THE
RETURN OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS, WHILE
HERE IN THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA WE REMAIN UNDER BLANKETED
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURE SPREAD FOR TODAY WILL BE REFLECTED BY
SATELLITE TRENDS, WITH LOCATIONS UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE RISING
INTO THE LOW 80S AND IN THE 60S/70S FOR THOSE UNDER LINGERING
CLOUDS.
OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AMID CLEARING SKIES. FOG EROSION AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY UNDER
THE GUISE OF PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOAR
INTO THE 70S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ARRIVING AROUND MIDWEEK WILL WORK IN
TANDEM WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PROMOTE
ACTIVE WEATHER SETTLING BACK OVER THE REGION. INCREASED
MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES, WILL YIELD AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A RESULT.
MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES HINT AT THE RETURN OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO THE RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING'S FROPA WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, RETURNING ALL TERMINALS TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING INTO THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT WILL YIELD
OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. IFR OR WORSE FOG MAY FESTER PAST ITS TYPICAL
12-13Z EROSION, BUT WIDEPSREAD VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. LIGHT TO CALM SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY PREVAIL
INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME TAF SITES. EXTENT AND TIMING
OF RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THIS WEEK.
CLIMATE
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.89 INCHES WAS SET AT CLARKSBURG, WV
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.83 INCHES SET IN
1956.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...GW
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