860
FXUS61 KRLX 040725
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
325 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIOR CYCLE. 06Z
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRAVERSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TO PRIMARILY IN AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY.
2) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS AMID WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR ERIE,
PA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH
VALLEY FOG HAVING ALREADY QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS AND INTO THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS (SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER). WHILE DO EXPECT A BIT MORE EXPANSION OF FOG THROUGH
DAWN, WEAK DRY ADVECTION VIA NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FROM GETTING TOO WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, AND COULD
EVEN BEGIN MIXING IT OUT IN SOME AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT
TODAY, WITH RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AS A CUTOFF UPPER DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CHARLESTON METRO. GIVEN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW, GENERALLY
5-10 KTS, A HIGHLY ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST VA AND FAR SOUTHERN
WV ZONES IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP GIVEN PWATS QUICKLY
RETURNING TO 1.5"+ BY LATER TODAY, AND ALSO CONSIDERING THE
POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURRED SUNDAY EVENING IN SOME
OF THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH NEAR/AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN LOW STRATUS COURTESY
OF SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.
AFTER A REFRESHING MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S,
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY BE
PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS GRADUALLY
PROGESSES EASTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASED WARMTH/MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA VIA AN ATLANTIC/GULF
FEED WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING (POPS
GENERALLY 40-80%). THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND COURTESY OF A FAIRLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH WEAK CROSSING WAVES THAT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK ON THE
LOWER SIDE, AS THE STRONGER KINEMATICS GENERALLY REMAINING
NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, DAILY MODEST INSTABILITY/FORCING
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, WITH PROGGED
SOUNDINGS DURING THE PERIOD GENERALLY FAVORING WEAK SHEAR AMID A
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WOULD TREND TOWARDS A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT VIA WET MICROBURSTS IF STRONGER STORMS WERE TO
OCCUR. IN ADDITION, PWATS IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE AMID CONTINUED
GENERAL WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, AMID HIGH HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VALLEY FOG HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AND IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
FURTHER NORTHWARD. WHILE DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH WILL
PROBABLY SLOW EXPANSION OF FOG GOING FORWARD, DO EXPECT MOST
TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH MVFR OR
WORSE, HTS BEING THE EXCEPTION. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT /
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TO 13Z. THIS GIVES WAY TO A
MAINLY DRY AND VFR DAY AMID A FEW/SCT CU FIELD, WITH ISOLD
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS SW VA
AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV. BRIEF MVFR VSBY COULD OCCUR AT BKW WITH
THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VCSH
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
CALM FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT ENE TO ESE
DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THIS MORNING, HIGH THEREAFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND TIMING OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
BRIEF MVFR VSBY COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH (INCLUDING AT BKW)
WITH ISOLD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 08/04/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L M L L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IFR COULD ALSO OCCUR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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