316
FXUS61 KRLX 042319
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
719 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED, WITH THE AREA ENTERING
INTO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK FEATURING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AMID THE EXODUS
OF HIGH PRESSURE.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND,
WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS AMID WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ROOM FOR A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING TODAY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED ON SATELLITE AT THE
TIME OF WRITING, WITH FURTHER VERTICAL GROWTH STARTING TO
TRANSPIRE. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUOUSLY FEED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK,
SETTING OFF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
FOCUSING ON TODAY, THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE ADVANCING CUTOFF
LOW WILL BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE KANAWHA
VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AT
SUNSET WILL CHOP OFF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND LONGEVITY OF
STORMS, BUT UNTIL THEN LIGHTNING AND A QUICK DOWNPOUR WILL BE
FEATURE WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND
INCREASED CLOUDS WILL THEN ROUND OUT THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW FEATURED IN KEY MESSAGE 1 WILL WORK IN
TANDEM WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT TO PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTING ACROSS THE PARENT TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
WEEK, BUT AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
CUMULUS FIELDS WILL BLOOM EACH AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURES WITH ACTIVITY THIS WEEK, AND COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES, DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT OF STORMS
AND ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN VICINITY OF CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, GENERALLY
AFTER 06 TO 08Z, AND MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT SITES KCRW AND KEKN.
IN ADDITION, A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY,
INCLUDING AT SITE KBKW.
AFTER 12-13Z, EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER, AFTER 18-20Z, SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 08/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H L H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L L M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IFR COULD ALSO OCCUR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SL
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