694
FXUS61 KRLX 050607
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AMID THE EXODUS
OF HIGH PRESSURE.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND,
WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS AMID WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ROOM FOR A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING TODAY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED ON SATELLITE AT THE
TIME OF WRITING, WITH FURTHER VERTICAL GROWTH STARTING TO
TRANSPIRE. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUOUSLY FEED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK,
SETTING OFF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
FOCUSING ON TODAY, THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE ADVANCING CUTOFF
LOW WILL BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE KANAWHA
VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AT
SUNSET WILL CHOP OFF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND LONGEVITY OF
STORMS, BUT UNTIL THEN LIGHTNING AND A QUICK DOWNPOUR WILL BE
FEATURE WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND
INCREASED CLOUDS WILL THEN ROUND OUT THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW FEATURED IN KEY MESSAGE 1 WILL WORK IN
TANDEM WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT TO PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTING ACROSS THE PARENT TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
WEEK, BUT AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
CUMULUS FIELDS WILL BLOOM EACH AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURES WITH ACTIVITY THIS WEEK, AND COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES, DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT OF STORMS
AND ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A FEW ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAWN, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION,
MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, BRIEF MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AT BKW/CRW/EKN COULD OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
DAWN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIABLES, BUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE, PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VSBY AT SOME TERMINALS, WITH PROB30 GROUPS CODED INTO
THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTION STEADILY DISSIPATES
AFTER SUNSET, WITH JUST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CALM FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL TRANSITION
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY, WITH FLOW ONCE AGAIN
GOING MAINLY CALM TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING AT BKW/CRW/EKN
COULD BE WORSE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. TIMING OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION TODAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 08/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L L M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L H H L L M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ONWARD, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IFR COULD ALSO OCCUR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...GW
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