838
FXUS61 KRLX 051013
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIOR CYCLE. 12Z
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWERS
AND STORMS AMID VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISSUES ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING AND SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY WITH ANY HEAVIER AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, ALBEIT ON THE
MUGGY SIDE, WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW. SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THUS FAR, BUT IN GENERAL IT SHOULD BE MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING GIVEN SOME SCATTERED MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA, ALONG WITH H925 FLOW OF 10-15 KTS.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION BEGINNING
TODAY. THE MAIN FEATURE OF IMPACT LOCALLY TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR
THE TRI-STATE OF GA/NC/TN VIA GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS GRADUALLY PROGESSES EASTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASED WARMTH/MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA VIA AN ATLANTIC/GULF
FEED FROM RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
DIURNAL HEATING (POPS GENERALLY 40-70%). OVERALL, SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
SLIGHTLY GREATER FORCING VIA LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS (ANABATIC
CONVERGENCE). THE PATTERN THEN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF A FAIRLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH PERIODIC WEAK CROSSING WAVES. THESE WAVES ATOP THE
PERSISTENT VERY WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK ON THE LOWER SIDE, AS THE STRONGER
KINEMATICS GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, DAILY
MODEST INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STRONG
STORM POTENTIAL. PROGGED SOUNDINGS THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY
FAVOR WEAK SHEAR AMID A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WOULD
TREND TOWARDS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT VIA WET MICROBURSTS IF
STRONGER STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. PROGGED SHEAR AND BUOYANCY TRENDS
UPWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD LEND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
GREATER STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL, MAIN HAZARD STILL BEING
DAMAGING WINDS.
THE OTHER POINT OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BY AND
LARGE, PWATS OF 1.6-2.0" ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW (5-10
KTS), WITH SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN SUCH, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT AND THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANTICIPATED WATER
ISSUES, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S TO 90 ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, AMID HIGH HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH HUMIDITY, DEW POINTS
IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 70S AT TIMES, WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS.
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S, IT IS IMPORTANT TO EXERCISE HEAT SAFETY DURING THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE
SOME RELIEF TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT / DISSIPATE BY 13Z.
ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY AT SOME TERMINALS. PROB30
GROUPS ARE CODED INTO THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT
OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
CONVECTION STEADILY DISSIPATES AFTER SUNSET, WITH MAINLY JUST
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING, THE
EXACT EXTENT OF WHICH WILL DEPEND ON RAINFALL COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN SUCH, DID INCLUDE AT LEAST A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE TAFS, WITH SOME MVFR/IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH FLOW ONCE AGAIN
GOING MAINLY CALM TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/IMPACTS OF CONVECTION TODAY MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG TONIGHT MAY BE
WORSE THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 08/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H L L M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ONWARD, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IFR COULD ALSO OCCUR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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