780
FXUS61 KRLX 051835
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOR ~18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS LOW, BUT LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER-LOW ANCHORING IT DOWN AND PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW IN SPEED, MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN MORE
ORGANIZED CELLS, MOSTLY A CONCERN FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE
LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS PROMISING INTO NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH WOULD STILL BE MINDFUL OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. BECAUSE
OF THIS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) FROM SPC BEING INTRODUCED TOMORROW WITH SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING POSSIBLE LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY, AND REALLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WILL BE
LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SLOW/TRAINING STORMS. A MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES THROUGH TODAY
INTO TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.25".
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA VIRTUALLY EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS 0.50" AND 1.50" OF RAINFALL BEING PICKED UP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHERE THESE WILL OCCUR. THAT SAID, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MORE LOCALIZED THREAT
EXPECTED.
THIS TREND OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, UNTIL A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCT TO BKN CU DECKS BETWEEN 2,000 AND 6,000 FEET TODAY
SIGNIFYING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY(HTS AND PKB) AND THE MOUNTAINS(BKW AND
EKN). DUE TO THE SCATTERED AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS
ACTIVITY, TEMPO GROUPS AND VCTS ARE IN TAFS AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER SUNDOWN TONIGHT, BETWEEN
~00Z AND ~02Z. KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH ABOUT ~04-06Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. DENSE VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WHERE ANY RAIN IS
RECEIVED TONIGHT. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY
SITES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY CRW AND EKN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS TODAY WILL GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VARY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY VARY. RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
FOG TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ONWARD, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IFR COULD ALSO OCCUR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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