733
FXUS61 KRLX 052311
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
711 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS LOW, BUT LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER-LOW ANCHORING IT DOWN AND PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW IN SPEED, MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN MORE
ORGANIZED CELLS, MOSTLY A CONCERN FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE
LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS PROMISING INTO NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH WOULD STILL BE MINDFUL OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. BECAUSE
OF THIS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) FROM SPC BEING INTRODUCED TOMORROW WITH SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING POSSIBLE LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY, AND REALLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WILL BE
LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SLOW/TRAINING STORMS. A MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES THROUGH TODAY
INTO TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.25".
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA VIRTUALLY EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS 0.50" AND 1.50" OF RAINFALL BEING PICKED UP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHERE THESE WILL OCCUR. THAT SAID, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MORE LOCALIZED THREAT
EXPECTED.
THIS TREND OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, UNTIL A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPPER OFF THIS EVENING. EXPECT
DENSE FOG TONIGHT IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
A CUMULUS DECK WILL FORM AGAIN ON THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN CAUSING RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY. TIMING OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...RPY
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