865
FXUS61 KRLX 060608
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
AS OF 1120 PM WEDNESDAY...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO REPRESENT
INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS
LINGERING ACTIVITY GRADUALLY EXITS NORTHEAST. RAIN RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO STEADILY DECREASE GOING FORWARD TONIGHT, THEREBY
QUICKLY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS LOW, BUT LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER-LOW ANCHORING IT DOWN AND PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW IN SPEED, MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN MORE
ORGANIZED CELLS, MOSTLY A CONCERN FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE
LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS PROMISING INTO NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH WOULD STILL BE MINDFUL OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. BECAUSE
OF THIS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) FROM SPC BEING INTRODUCED TOMORROW WITH SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING POSSIBLE LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY, AND REALLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WILL BE
LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SLOW/TRAINING STORMS. A MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES THROUGH TODAY
INTO TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.25".
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA VIRTUALLY EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS 0.50" AND 1.50" OF RAINFALL BEING PICKED UP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHERE THESE WILL OCCUR. THAT SAID, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MORE LOCALIZED THREAT
EXPECTED.
THIS TREND OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, UNTIL A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS AT
PRESENT, DO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS CODED INTO ALL OF
THE TAFS BY DAWN WITH FOG, SAVE BKW. FOG SHOULD LIFT / DISSIPATE
BY ~13Z, WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR COULD OCCUR WITH STRATOCU LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROB30
GROUPS ARE CODED INTO THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
MAINLY CALM FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY, WITH FLOW
ONCE AGAIN GOING MAINLY CALM TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
FOG THIS MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 08/06/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L M M M L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H M H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/LTC
AVIATION...GW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page