305
FXUS61 KRLX 060747
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
347 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NEXT WEEK, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW, BUT LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER QUIET AND MUGGY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG THAT IS SLOWLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE. GIVEN RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA YESTERDAY, FAIRLY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING THROUGH DAWN, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE, WITH COVERAGE
GREATEST ACROSS THE TYPICAL VALLEYS OR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVIER RAIN YESTERDAY. FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF IMPACT LOCALLY HAS BEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY PULLED NORTHWARD, OPENING UP INTO AN
ELONGATED WAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND STILL OVERHEAD OF
THE AREA PER GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER SCALE UPPER AIR
PATTERN AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
GRADUALLY PROGESSES EASTWARD. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE TODAY
SHOULD BE LESS THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY, TRANSLATING INTO ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING.
OVERALL, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN (40-70%), WITH ACTIVITY MORE OF THE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED VARIETY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE PATTERN
THEN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF A
FAIRLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH PERIODIC WEAK
CROSSING SHORTWAVES. THESE WAVES ATOP THE PERSISTENT VERY WARM
AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DAILY
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING, BUT COULD ALSO
OCCUR SOME NIGHTS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A DRIER INTERLUDE COULD OCCUR SOMETIME
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN,
WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THEREAFTER.
THE PRIMARY POINT OF CONCERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAILY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GIVEN PROGGED PWATS OF 1.5-2.0" BY AND LARGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SUCH, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. EVEN SO,
DAILY MODEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING
THE THREAT IF ANY HEAVIER STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, AMID HIGH HUMIDITY. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, BUT
GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHEN/IF THE FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS AT
PRESENT, DO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS CODED INTO ALL OF
THE TAFS BY DAWN WITH FOG, SAVE BKW. FOG SHOULD LIFT / DISSIPATE
BY ~13Z, WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR COULD OCCUR WITH STRATOCU LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROB30
GROUPS ARE CODED INTO THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
MAINLY CALM FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY, WITH FLOW
ONCE AGAIN GOING MAINLY CALM TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
FOG THIS MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 08/06/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L M M M L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H M H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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