740
FXUS61 KRLX 202331
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
731 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
731 PM UPDATE...
~00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE FOR NEW TAFS.
213 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT THE AREA LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH, PARTICULARLY IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE ABLE
TO FORM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY ON
FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST, AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH TAKING
HOLD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON SATURDAY, WITH A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT, WITH DECENT INSTABILITY, AND DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS/DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BKW AND EKN ARE REPORTING BKN TO OVC CIGS
BETWEEN 1,000 AND 3,500 FEET AGL. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT A ROUND OF
SH AND ISO TS IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THESE TWO SITES AT THE TOP OF
THE HOUR.
LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOW SPORADIC
CLEARING OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY
FORM DENSE FOG ACROSS SE OHIO AND AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
~15-17Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT, THEN LIGHT WITH
VARIABLE DIRECTION FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. IMPACTS FROM FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L M L L
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES ALSO EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NE'RN MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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