585
FXUS61 KRLX 211829
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS ISSUANCES.
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPAWN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER EXTENDS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRECEDING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAY FOSTER DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
3) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK
WILL YIELD A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR TRENDS THUS FAR TODAY HAVE KEPT THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN KENTUCKY AT THE
TIME OF WRITING WITHIN BLOSSOMING CUMULUS SIGNALS
DESTABILIZATION THAT BEARS A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL LOWLANDS. HI-RES MODELING FIRES UP A LINE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND FADING OFF AFTER SUNSET. LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PROMPTING
BLOSSOMING CUMULUS FIELDS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT. STORM INITIATION PRECEDING FROPA MAY BEGIN AS EARLY
AS 2 PM ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH ASSISTANCE FROM UPSLOPE LIFT.
RADAR WILL THEN REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT,
CURRENTLY AIMING FOR AN ARRIVAL TIME INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALIGNED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY PRESSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, LINGERING LONGEST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS MAY BE ONGOING FOR THE START OF THE DAY SUNDAY, A
MULTI-DAY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WEEKEND/START OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE GUISE OF BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL AID IN SOIL
RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY WET MONTH ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S
AND 50S DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR ACROSS THE BOARD THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER LATE EROSION OF FOG EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER, A
PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY SPAWN A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THIS
EVENING. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT BKW WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
THE END OF THE VALID ZULU DAY.
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE AMID
DEVELOPING FOG AND LOW STRATUS. CALM WINDS AND IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY; MEDIUM OVERNIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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