871
FXUS61 KRLX 220930
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND, HAIL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
2) A BIG BREAK FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN IS EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY EXPECTED
FROM THEN AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS UNDER A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED
TROUGH WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF ITS COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT THIS AND SPC HAS US IN MAINLY A SLIGHT THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND ALTHOUGH HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. PWATS
ARE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY, HOWEVER THEY DO
APPROACH THE 1.3 TO 1.5 MARK ALONG WITH VERY HIGH DCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO ALLOW FOR DOWNBURST AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH WOULD PROMOTE POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES IF
REPEATEDLY HIT BY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW ACROSS THE BOARD SO ANY OF THESE STORMS
THAT PRODUCE MORE THAN GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE AN ISSUE IF
REPEATED HIT OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW
LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKING PLACE
TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY THEN. THE
HI-RES AND CAM MODELS HAVE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HRRR IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AS
WELL AS THE OTHER CAMS THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
WPC HAD US IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL UNTIL
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH HAVE TAKEN US OUT OF THE RISK ON THE
LATEST UPDATE. AREAS WHO ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING ISSUES
ARE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS AS WELL
AS AREAS WHO HAVE HAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATELY AND WHO'S
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH IS BELOW ABOUT 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE ASPECT WE HAVE
GOING FOR US IS THAT STEERING FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY DECENT
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BE MOVING
RELATIVELY AT A GOOD PACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE TONIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE DRY AIR INTO THE
AREA LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAYTIME AND 50S
AT NIGHTTIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE STARVED AND
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WE CAN EXPECT A DRY
SPELL BASICALLY THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
THEREAFTER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
FORCAST TO TRAVERSE THE AREA, THEREFORE THE DRY SPELL WILL COME
TO AN END BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OUTSIDE THE VALLEY FOG VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 13Z
EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT WHEN LOWER CIGS TAKEOVER DUE TO POST FRONTAL
STRATUS AND/OR FOG REDUCING VIS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNLESS A SITE IS DIRECTLY
HIT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT EXCEPT MAY
INCREASE SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CHANGE OUT OF THE WEST AS
FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE TONIGHT. STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WHICH CAN INCREASE GUSTY WINDS TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF A SITE IS HIT DIRECTLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY
VARY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER TIMING MAY VARY FROM
TAFS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 08/22/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L H M L M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L H M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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