636
FXUS61 KRLX 230529
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
712 PM UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE FOR ~00Z TAFS.
514 PM UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO COVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND OUR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES.
158 PM UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON FOR
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GROWS IN EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.
2) IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SETTLES
INTO THE REGION ALONGSIDE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
514 PM UPDATE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT GOES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV AND ALL OF
NORTHEASTERN KY. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL RISK AS PREVIOUS ROUNDS
OF STORMS HAVE WEAKENED INSTABILITY SOME ACROSS THE AREA.
HRRR AND RAP STILL SHOW POCKETS OF 2,500 TO 3,500 CAPE ACROSS
THE AREA IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS HAVE NOT MOVED THROUGH YET.
THESE WILL BE AREAS TO WATCH FOR POP UP STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER ROUND IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
158 PM UPDATE...
EARNEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO PASS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
PRECEDING THE FRONT HAS YIELDED OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR CUMULUS
TO QUICKLY DEVELOP FURTHER INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WITH DESTABILIZATION QUICKLY ARISING, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED IN COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THIS WATCH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA,
WHERE SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WATCH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TO DETERMINE HOW THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHAKE OUT.
STORMS PRECEDING THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. WHILE SOME SOIL RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED IN
LOCATIONS WHO RECENTLY FACED A MULTITUDE OF DAYS FEATURING
FLOODING, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD INVIGORATE FURTHER HYDRO IMPACTS
ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE A RESPONSE FROM INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL
RATES, BUT LOCATIONS WOULD THEN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY TRAINING
EFFECTS THAT MAY SET UP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
CONVECTION MARCHES INTO THE POST-SUNSET TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BANK UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WRAP UP ALTOGETHER BY DAYBREAK ONCE
THE FRONT HAS COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE START OF
DRY WEATHER THAT STRETCHES INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL YIELD A PUSH OF DRY
AIR, ALONGSIDE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL SPAN
THE 60S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WHILE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE LOW
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK, WHEN A WARMING TREND INSTIGATES DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TAKING PLACE AND THE FRONT WILL EXIT BY
THE MID MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PROMOTING SURFACE FLOW AND
STRONGER FLOW RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE BOTH ENOUGH TO DETER MUCH
FOG FORMATION. NOT TO MENTION LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS BRINGING DOWN A FEW SITES TO MVFR/IFR
SUCH AS CKB/EKN/BKW WHICH SHOULD ONLY LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
ONCE ANY LINGERING CIGS AND PATCHY FOG LIFTS AFTER 13Z, VFR
WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS PERIOD UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN VALLEY
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 08/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M L H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/LTC
AVIATION...JZ
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