277
FXUS61 KRLX 230941
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
541 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE WERE MADE
AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCE WAS THAT THERE IS LESS
OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE REGION ALONGSIDE A
BRIEF COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.
2) THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN AN ABUNDANT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER TO
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
NICE COOL DOWN PERIOD WILL COMMENCE AS WELL AS DEW PINTS ONLY
CLIMBING TO THE 60S DURING THE DAYTIME AND 50S DURING THE
OVERNIGHTS WHICH WILL PROMOTE DRY AND COOL DAYS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DURING THE DAYTIME, HIGHS WILL STAY WELL BELOW
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE REGION WILL MAINLY BE
DRY FOR THE MOST PART. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RETURN TO AROUND
NORMAL AFTER MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL DROP IN A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH INTO FRIDAY. IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT
TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE THREAT, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SO THE SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AS OF NOW.
ONE THING THERE IS AN ABUNDANT OF IS MOISTURE AND LONG SKINNY
CAPE ALONG WITH HIGH DCAPE VALUES AND PWATS, THEREFORE THE
ENVIRONMENT MIGHT SUPPORT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ALTHOUGH
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SPELL IT WOULD TAKE A LOT TO CAUSE
ISSUES UNLESS WE GET HIT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH
WILL LIKELY CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF AREAS WERE TO GET
REPEATEDLY HIT AND EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THEN THERE COULD
BE ISSUES WITH FLOOD PRONE AREAS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON THE THREATS, IF ANY, FROM
THIS MAIN FEATURE FOR THURSDAY.
A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE MAY BRING DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION,
HOWEVER CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS THEN FORECAST TO IMPEDE THE AREA ON SUNDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE
TABLE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME FOR THE WEEKEND TO ABOUT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING DEWPOINTS GETTING BACK TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING BACK SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS TAKEN PLACE. THIS FEATURE HAS PROMOTED
SURFACE FLOW AND STRONGER FLOW RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE BOTH ENOUGH
TO DETER MUCH FOG FORMATION. SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER AROUND
EKN/CKB WHICH SHOULD ONLY LAST THROUGH THE MORNING. ONCE ANY
LINGERING CIGS AND PATCHY FOG LIFTS AFTER 13Z, VFR WILL DOMINATE
THE REST OF THIS PERIOD UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. WINDS
SHOULD MAINLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 08/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M L M M M H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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