559
FXUS61 KRLX 231749
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
LITTLE TO NO MODIFICATIONS WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERAL THUNDER RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS
SINCE BEEN ERASED FROM THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK, YIELDING A CLEAN
EIGHT DAY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK RISK FOR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE REGION ALONGSIDE A
BRIEF COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.
2) WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS BACK INTO AN UNSETTLED STATE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AMID PASSING DISTURBANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ROUNDS OUT THE WEEKEND UNDER THE
GUISE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELDS
HAVE SPROUTED OVERHEAD TODAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM INTO
SHOWERS OR STORMS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. A SIMILAR FORECAST
SETS UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
NESTLED OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WE FOUND OURSELVES IN SO FAR THIS
MONTH.
COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY YIELDS DAYTIME HIGHS SPANNING
THE 60S TO LOW 80S, ELEVATION DEPENDENT, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUMBLING DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME NUDGED OFFSHORE AFTER MIDWEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THURSDAY ONWARD. WE COULD ALSO SEE INFLUENCE FROM A DISTURBANCE
CHURNING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER ON IN THE WEEK. WHETHER
AN UPTICK IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE AREA
WITH THESE WAVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
SOIL RECOVERY THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD AID IN LIMITING ANY INITIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING STORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED, HOWEVER, FOR LOCALIZED ISSUES HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BLOSSOMING CUMULUS FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAKE ON A MUCH
DIFFERENT APPEARANCE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED IN OUR AIRSPACE. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL YIELD A STRETCH OF
MUCH QUIETER FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK. AFTERNOON CLOUDS, COUPLED WITH MOUNTAIN BREEZES, WILL
FADE THIS EVENING. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR OUR SHELTERED
TERMINALS, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY OF PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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